BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.86
20260.180.000.85
20270.160.000.84
20280.150.000.82
20290.140.000.81

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA112016
MarslandNEBRASKA102021
PantexTEXAS101986
Agate 2NEBRASKA72024
FlemingCOLORADO62006
HookerOKLAHOMA62016
Two ButtesCOLORADO51984
PlymellKANSAS52024
BereaNEBRASKA52019
HudsonCOLORADO41999
WaverlyCOLORADO42018
GrigstonKANSAS42024
DaltonNEBRASKA42024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42024
KeyesOKLAHOMA42004
NeegrandeCOLORADO32004
LakinKANSAS32017
UlyssesKANSAS32024
LeotiKANSAS32019
LamarCOLORADO21984
AmherstCOLORADO21999
KirkCOLORADO22013
WallaceKANSAS22022
AgateNEBRASKA22001
BenkelmanNEBRASKA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.