BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Upland Sandpiper In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Upland Sandpiper In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.85
20270.180.000.84
20280.170.000.83
20290.150.000.82
20300.140.000.81

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA112016
MarslandNEBRASKA102021
FlemingCOLORADO62006
DaltonNEBRASKA62025
HookerOKLAHOMA62016
YoderWYOMING62025
Two ButtesCOLORADO51984
PlymellKANSAS52024
HudsonCOLORADO41999
WaverlyCOLORADO42018
GrigstonKANSAS42024
CrawfordNEBRASKA42025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42024
KeyesOKLAHOMA42004
NeegrandeCOLORADO32004
LakinKANSAS32017
UlyssesKANSAS32024
LeotiKANSAS32019
BereaNEBRASKA32025
Agate 2NEBRASKA32025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32025
LamarCOLORADO21984
AmherstCOLORADO21999
KirkCOLORADO22013
WallaceKANSAS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.