BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2012, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2012TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2012 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2012, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662012
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20080.000.000.28
20090.000.000.28
20100.000.000.28
20110.000.000.28
20120.000.000.28

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NashvilleNEW-YORK41991
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA41968
E YoungstownNEW-YORK32001
PenfieldNEW-YORK31978
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21970
RomulusNEW-YORK21990
SheridanNEW-YORK21989
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK21988
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21971
ArgyleNEW-YORK21997
WaddingtonNEW-YORK21991
HopkintonNEW-YORK21990
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11998
MacdougallNEW-YORK11981
OrleansNEW-YORK11980
RushvilleNEW-YORK12007
BranchportNEW-YORK11973
MendonNEW-YORK11989
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11986
HamburgNEW-YORK11971
RandolphNEW-YORK12000
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11969
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK11996
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11980
WatertownNEW-YORK11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.