BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±249%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.41
20260.090.000.40
20270.080.000.39
20280.070.000.39
20290.070.000.38

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52024
IronsMICHIGAN41986
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN42014
HermanMICHIGAN31993
WilsonMICHIGAN32002
GilchristMICHIGAN31995
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN32023
WausaukeeWISCONSIN32008
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN32022
CunardMICHIGAN22021
PickfordMICHIGAN22017
HerronMICHIGAN22016
MayfieldMICHIGAN22018
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN22010
MinongWISCONSIN22017
OntonagonMICHIGAN12016
BootjackMICHIGAN11996
ShingletonMICHIGAN11986
IsabellaMICHIGAN11985
Bear LakeMICHIGAN12016
MuskallongeMICHIGAN11996
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11974
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN11991
Lake CityMICHIGAN12010
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.