BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tundra Swan In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Tundra Swan in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+63%Since 1994
10Routes In Region
29Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tundra Swan has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tundra Swan in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2995% range
±135.4%Backtest error
19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.000.28
20260.130.000.28
20270.130.000.28
20280.130.000.28
20290.130.000.29

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Tundra Swan in BCR 4.
Unalakleet RiverALASKA32019
Mud RiverALASKA32024
MaclarenALASKA22021
MonahanALASKA22004
Hather CreekALASKA22012
Anvik RiverALASKA22014
Birch LakeALASKA12019
SlanaALASKA12018
Nicholai SlALASKA12006
ColdfootALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.