BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tundra Swan In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Tundra Swan in BCR 2 has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+190%Since 1986
18Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tundra Swan has surged in BCR 2: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tundra Swan in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±720.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029
11Projected 2029 index
0.00–3195% range
±720.6%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025100.0030
2026100.0030
2027100.0030
2028100.0030
2029110.0031

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Tundra Swan in BCR 2.
King SalmonALASKA212024
Cape NomeALASKA192024
Cold BayALASKA122024
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA91992
NomeALASKA72022
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA51987
TellerALASKA32024
KotzebueALASKA32024
Selawik (Short)ALASKA31987
CouncilALASKA22024
Salmon LakeALASKA22019
St. Mary'SALASKA22000
Kanektok RivALASKA21999
Goodnews BayALASKA22004
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12022
DillinghamALASKA12014
Togiak RiverALASKA12003
Gweek RiverALASKA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.