BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Blackbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Tricolored Blackbird in Oregon has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-87%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tricolored Blackbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Blackbird has collapsed in Oregon: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Tricolored Blackbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Blackbird in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.43 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5284.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5284.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Blackbird in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.43 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5284.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.520.005.9
20240.490.005.8
20250.470.005.8
20260.450.005.8
20270.430.005.8

Tricolored Blackbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Tricolored Blackbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrill2020121993
Modoc Point1019921970
Emigrant Lk419741974
Twickenham220222022
Chinchalo220132013
Bly 2120142014
Lone Rock119991999

Tricolored Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

californiawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.