BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Tricolored Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-88%Since 1972
4Routes In Region
21Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Tricolored Blackbird has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±475.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.895% range
±475.6%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.003.8
20260.000.003.8
20270.000.003.8
20280.000.003.8
20290.000.003.8

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Tricolored Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
OnyxCALIFORNIA421998
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA292024
Calif CityCALIFORNIA141979
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.