BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+615%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.020.11
20270.060.020.11
20280.070.020.11
20290.070.020.11
20300.070.020.11

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA62001
BethelNORTH-CAROLINA52018
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA52025
WhitevilleTENNESSEE52025
SurryVIRGINIA52006
MansfieldTENNESSEE42024
NewsomsVIRGINIA42024
St FlorianALABAMA32024
BlountstownFLORIDA32019
TupeloMISSISSIPPI32022
CarrolltonALABAMA21996
GastonburgALABAMA22016
PittsGEORGIA21990
Big OakGEORGIA22024
LovelacevileKENTUCKY22025
ShilohKENTUCKY22021
CockrumMISSISSIPPI22021
MaconMISSISSIPPI22007
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI22022
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA22025
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA22025
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA21998
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA22017
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA22011
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.