BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+529%Since 1982
59Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.02–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.1095% range
±42.1%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.050.020.09
20260.060.020.09
20270.060.020.10
20280.060.020.10
20290.060.020.10

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
LovelacevileKENTUCKY62022
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA62001
BethelNORTH-CAROLINA52018
SurryVIRGINIA52006
MansfieldTENNESSEE42024
NewsomsVIRGINIA42024
St FlorianALABAMA32024
BlountstownFLORIDA32019
TupeloMISSISSIPPI32022
WhitevilleTENNESSEE32013
WhitehallALABAMA22009
CarrolltonALABAMA21996
GastonburgALABAMA22016
PittsGEORGIA21990
Big OakGEORGIA22024
ShilohKENTUCKY22021
CockrumMISSISSIPPI22021
MaconMISSISSIPPI22007
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI22022
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA21998
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA22017
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA22011
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA22017
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE22000
GreensboroALABAMA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.