BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+138%Since 1975
24Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029
0.16Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6695% range
±41.7%Backtest error
19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.170.000.67
20260.170.000.67
20270.170.000.67
20280.170.000.67
20290.160.000.66

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA82024
MaynardARKANSAS42024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI42024
HarrisburgARKANSAS31985
South BendARKANSAS22023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22022
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI22009
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22021
HughesARKANSAS12011
AugustaARKANSAS11995
SaffellARKANSAS12004
LafeARKANSAS12022
GillettARKANSAS12016
UlmARKANSAS12024
WilsonARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY12003
ShawLOUISIANA12021
RayvilleLOUISIANA11994
IsolaMISSISSIPPI12000
TippoMISSISSIPPI12023
DeventerMISSOURI12021
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12007
PawpawTENNESSEE12008
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.