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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+48%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 285% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+285%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 285% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.190.000.57
20250.200.000.57
20260.200.000.58
20270.210.000.58
20280.210.000.59

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Tree Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CaledoniaTEXAS52010
Chandler 2TEXAS52011
StarkARKANSAS32023
CrossroadsTEXAS32013
StampsARKANSAS21997
AshdownARKANSAS22018
BlancoOKLAHOMA21995
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA22021
Town BluffTEXAS22008
EastonTEXAS22013
HollywoodARKANSAS11969
Coal HillARKANSAS12021
MassardARKANSAS11998
NanceARKANSAS12016
Mer RougeLOUISIANA12002
AthensTEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.