BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+131%Since 1968
161Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029
10Projected 2029 index
5.4–1595% range
±106.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025105.115
2026105.215
2027105.215
2028105.315
2029105.415

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
LagrangeINDIANA472024
EdwardsMINNESOTA452024
EllisINDIANA422024
OmroWISCONSIN372001
HollandWISCONSIN342024
LockportOHIO282024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN272024
St StephenMINNESOTA262016
Brook ParkMINNESOTA212024
VeronaWISCONSIN212024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA202024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN202024
New LondonMINNESOTA192024
Omro 2WISCONSIN182024
LakevilleINDIANA172017
MatherWISCONSIN172023
KnappMINNESOTA162024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN162024
RichmondMICHIGAN152024
OsseoMINNESOTA152024
GlenwoodMINNESOTA152019
HamburgMICHIGAN142000
AshbyMINNESOTA142021
NashvilleMICHIGAN132024
RochesterMICHIGAN132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.