BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

19×Since 1977
47Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.64 (95% range 0.33–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029
0.64Projected 2029 index
0.33–0.9595% range
±52.8%Backtest error
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.590.280.90
20260.600.290.91
20270.610.300.92
20280.630.320.94
20290.640.330.95

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
KennedyNEBRASKA112024
BartleyNEBRASKA72024
HendleyNEBRASKA52024
St JohnKANSAS42016
HolbrookNEBRASKA42021
Piester LakeNEBRASKA42024
NenzelNEBRASKA42024
Jewell 2KANSAS32010
SurpriseNEBRASKA32012
Liberty 2NEBRASKA32007
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32024
ReedOKLAHOMA32016
CovertKANSAS22013
LibertyNEBRASKA21992
BelvidereNEBRASKA22019
KearneyNEBRASKA22024
JohnstownNEBRASKA22024
GordonNEBRASKA22024
RinggoldNEBRASKA22015
BrownleeNEBRASKA22023
MullenNEBRASKA22023
BassettNEBRASKA22024
HollisOKLAHOMA22000
WellingtonKANSAS12006
AlbertKANSAS11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.