BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 562% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+562%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.05–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 115% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.05–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.040.55
20270.300.040.55
20280.300.050.56
20290.300.050.56
20300.310.050.56

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KiowaCOLORADO72018
Kiowa 2COLORADO72025
NeegrandeCOLORADO52019
CheyenneWYOMING52016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42024
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
DaltonNEBRASKA32025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32022
VillegreenCOLORADO22004
JulesburgCOLORADO22018
Arsenal 2COLORADO22023
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22014
FrionaTEXAS22001
YoderWYOMING22024
LingleWYOMING22024
ChugwaterWYOMING22024
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Last Chance 2COLORADO12022
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11993
EllicottCOLORADO12018
ElbertCOLORADO12025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12017
CrawfordNEBRASKA12019
Pine BluffWYOMING11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.