BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 855% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+855%Since 1993
24Routes In Region
29Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 855% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.07–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029
0.33Projected 2029 index
0.07–0.5895% range
±113.5%Backtest error
19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.310.060.56
20260.320.060.57
20270.320.070.57
20280.320.070.58
20290.330.070.58

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
ElbertCOLORADO192022
KiowaCOLORADO72018
Kiowa 2COLORADO72024
NeegrandeCOLORADO52019
CheyenneWYOMING52016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42024
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32022
VillegreenCOLORADO22004
JulesburgCOLORADO22018
Arsenal 2COLORADO22023
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22014
FrionaTEXAS22001
YoderWYOMING22024
LingleWYOMING22024
ChugwaterWYOMING22024
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Last Chance 2COLORADO12022
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11993
EllicottCOLORADO12018
DaltonNEBRASKA12015
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12017
CrawfordNEBRASKA12019
Pine BluffWYOMING11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.