BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968
155Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Tree Swallow has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.295% range
±18.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.007.5
20262.10.007.2
20271.80.006.9
20281.50.006.6
20291.10.006.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
NorthfieldMAINE451981
BentonMAINE441980
ManchesterMAINE391995
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE321975
WaiteMAINE241977
MedwayMAINE202018
Hope FallsNEW-YORK201995
East HavenVERMONT192024
Moose RiverMAINE182008
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS182024
WatervilleVERMONT161980
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS152024
St DavidMAINE142005
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS141994
Forest StaMAINE132000
HardwickVERMONT132024
CarrabassettMAINE122023
BoundaryMAINE122016
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK121975
Otisfield GrMAINE112015
WarrenMAINE111990
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS112014
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
LandgroveVERMONT112024
GreensboroVERMONT112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.