BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029
7.0Projected 2029 index
3.1–1195% range
±100.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.93.011
20266.93.011
20276.93.011
20287.03.011
20297.03.111

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
MacdougallNEW-YORK352024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK341995
HinesburgVERMONT341994
GarrettsvileOHIO241991
ArgyleNEW-YORK222024
RomulusNEW-YORK212000
West BangorNEW-YORK211999
Alder CreekNEW-YORK182004
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA172024
Grand IsleVERMONT132024
WatertownNEW-YORK122012
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
CastileNEW-YORK112024
ByronNEW-YORK112024
NashvilleNEW-YORK102018
HebronOHIO102016
GhentNEW-YORK92024
OrleansNEW-YORK92024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK92023
N WilmurtNEW-YORK91998
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA91979
OneidaNEW-YORK82010
AusterlitzNEW-YORK72024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.