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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Warbler has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.87.4
20275.73.97.5
20285.83.97.6
20295.94.07.7
20306.04.17.8

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whale PassALASKA812024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA792025
CraigALASKA732025
Thorne BayALASKA552012
KetchikanALASKA512022
Chichagof IsALASKA512024
Kuiu IslandALASKA462010
Moose PassALASKA371992
SewardALASKA351992
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON312025
HoonahALASKA302024
SitkaALASKA252024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON252025
ShellrockOREGON242024
HainesALASKA202025
Mitkof IsleALASKA202025
Zimovia StrtALASKA202025
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA171992
PetersburgALASKA161987
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON162014
ZaremboALASKA152024
TaholahWASHINGTON152022
HyderALASKA132009
HopeALASKA122025
PackwoodWASHINGTON112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.