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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Warbler has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.77.4
20265.73.87.5
20275.73.97.6
20285.84.07.7
20295.94.17.8

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Townsend's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA942024
Whale PassALASKA812024
CraigALASKA792024
Thorne BayALASKA552012
KetchikanALASKA512022
Chichagof IsALASKA512024
Kuiu IslandALASKA462010
Mitkof IsleALASKA382024
HainesALASKA372024
Moose PassALASKA371992
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON362024
SewardALASKA351992
HoonahALASKA302024
Zimovia StrtALASKA292024
SitkaALASKA252024
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA171992
PetersburgALASKA161987
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON162014
HopeALASKA152024
ZaremboALASKA152024
TaholahWASHINGTON152022
ShellrockOREGON142023
HyderALASKA132009
GreenwaterWASHINGTON112024
JuneauALASKA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.