BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Longspur In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Thick-billed Longspur in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+209%Since 1970
19Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Thick-billed Longspur has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.57–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029
1.9Projected 2029 index
0.57–3.395% range
±77.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.90.483.2
20261.90.513.3
20271.90.533.3
20281.90.553.3
20291.90.573.3

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Thick-billed Longspur in Shortgrass Prairie.
RockportCOLORADO752024
CheyenneWYOMING302024
NunnCOLORADO202021
GroverCOLORADO172024
AgateNEBRASKA171999
BriggsdaleCOLORADO82007
YoderWYOMING51971
Adams Co.COLORADO22016
ChugwaterWYOMING22024
Pine BluffWYOMING22009
RushCOLORADO12024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO12018
CrowleyCOLORADO11997
StonehamCOLORADO12021
LimonCOLORADO12022
EllicottCOLORADO11999
Arsenal 2COLORADO12022
KimballNEBRASKA12015
Agate 2NEBRASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.