BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Thick-billed Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+22%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Thick-billed Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Thick-billed Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.59
20260.060.000.58
20270.050.000.58
20280.050.000.57
20290.040.000.57

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Thick-billed Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22006
AmadoARIZONA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.