Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Tennessee Warbler In BCR 4
Tennessee Warbler in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1995.
-80%Since 1995
11Routes In Region
18Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Tennessee Warbler has collapsed in BCR 4: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1995.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1695% range
±248.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Chicken | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Kuskulana | ALASKA | 2 | 2017 |
| Eagle | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Birch Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 1990 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 1 | 1995 |
| Donelly Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Delta | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Nabesna Road | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Mccarthy Rd2 | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.