BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.36 (95% range 0.25–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.36 (95% range 0.25–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.250.46
20260.350.250.46
20270.350.250.46
20280.350.250.46
20290.360.250.46

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DrydenNEW-YORK142024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA142022
RiftonNEW-YORK91986
McdonoughNEW-YORK92017
EldredPENNSYLVANIA82022
CattaraugusNEW-YORK62019
MilfordNEW-YORK62023
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA62024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA61992
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA62024
MiddletownNEW-YORK51980
SwainNEW-YORK52007
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA52024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA52024
S BerneNEW-YORK42013
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA41992
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA42022
Mt NeboMARYLAND31991
JenningsMARYLAND32023
MeridaleNEW-YORK32024
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK31978
S Berne 2NEW-YORK32024
CumberlandOHIO32017
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA32024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.