BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swamp Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.36 (95% range 0.25–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.36 (95% range 0.25–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.250.46
20260.350.250.46
20270.350.250.46
20280.350.250.46
20290.360.250.46

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DrydenNEW-YORK142024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA142022
RiftonNEW-YORK91986
McdonoughNEW-YORK92017
EldredPENNSYLVANIA82022
CattaraugusNEW-YORK62019
MilfordNEW-YORK62023
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA62024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA61992
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA62024
MiddletownNEW-YORK51980
SwainNEW-YORK52007
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA52024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA52024
S BerneNEW-YORK42013
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA41992
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA42022
Mt NeboMARYLAND31991
JenningsMARYLAND32023
MeridaleNEW-YORK32024
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK31978
S Berne 2NEW-YORK32024
CumberlandOHIO32017
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA32024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.