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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swamp Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Swamp Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.32.1
20271.71.32.1
20281.71.32.1
20291.71.32.1
20301.71.32.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W RutlandVERMONT142025
HardwickVERMONT92024
NorthfieldMAINE81981
WanakenaNEW-YORK82025
Forest StaMAINE62000
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK62017
StoweVERMONT62024
WaiteMAINE51977
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
GabrielsNEW-YORK52025
SabattisNEW-YORK51983
TurnerMAINE42002
GreenwoodMAINE42025
BentonMAINE41971
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE42000
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS42016
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK42010
DegrasseNEW-YORK42025
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK41975
LandgroveVERMONT42025
MiddlesexVERMONT42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.