BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Swamp Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.22.1
20261.71.22.1
20271.71.32.1
20281.71.32.1
20291.71.32.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W RutlandVERMONT132024
HardwickVERMONT92024
NorthfieldMAINE81981
Carrying PlMAINE72024
Forest StaMAINE62000
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK62017
StoweVERMONT62024
WaiteMAINE51977
SpeculatorNEW-YORK52024
WanakenaNEW-YORK52024
GabrielsNEW-YORK52024
SabattisNEW-YORK51983
TurnerMAINE42002
GreenwoodMAINE42024
BentonMAINE41971
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE42000
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS42016
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK42010
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK41975
BethelMAINE32019
ReedsMAINE32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.