BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968
80Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.96–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
1.7Projected 2029 index
0.96–2.495% range
±23.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.60.912.3
20261.60.932.3
20271.60.942.3
20281.70.952.4
20291.70.962.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
HinesburgVERMONT141994
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA132024
NaplesNEW-YORK102024
North EastonNEW-YORK92024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK82024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
ByronNEW-YORK62024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
CrescentNEW-YORK62024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52024
RandolphNEW-YORK52018
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK52024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK51998
BalmatNEW-YORK52008
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
TrumansburgNEW-YORK42024
WatertownNEW-YORK42012
OgdensburgNEW-YORK42024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA42024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK32018
Ballston LkNEW-YORK31970
CastileNEW-YORK32024
SheridanNEW-YORK32024
OneidaNEW-YORK32010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.