BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

20×Since 1971
68Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029
0.17Projected 2029 index
0.08–0.2595% range
±60.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.150.070.24
20260.160.070.24
20270.160.070.25
20280.160.070.25
20290.170.080.25

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA72024
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA62024
TellicoTENNESSEE62024
GreensportALABAMA52024
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Smokey JctTENNESSEE42022
Willis SprngTENNESSEE42023
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA42024
DrummondALABAMA32022
Mountain CtyGEORGIA32024
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA32024
McfarlandTENNESSEE31976
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA32024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA32024
Sunny EveALABAMA22022
Mt OliveALABAMA22024
KymulgaALABAMA22024
RiversideALABAMA22013
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY22023
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA22024
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA22023
MurphyNORTH-CAROLINA22024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA22024
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA22022
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.