BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

23×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.070.28
20270.180.070.28
20280.180.070.29
20290.180.080.29
20300.190.080.29

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA112025
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA72025
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA72025
Mountain CtyGEORGIA62025
KymulgaALABAMA52025
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA52025
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA52025
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Smokey JctTENNESSEE42022
Willis SprngTENNESSEE42023
GhentWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA42025
GreensportALABAMA32025
BrooksvilleALABAMA32025
DrummondALABAMA32022
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA32025
McfarlandTENNESSEE31976
TellicoTENNESSEE32025
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA32025
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA32024
Sunny EveALABAMA22022
Mt OliveALABAMA22025
TalladegaALABAMA22025
RiversideALABAMA22013
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.