BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+123%Since 1977
18Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.03–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.03–0.4595% range
±28%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.230.020.44
20260.230.020.45
20270.240.030.45
20280.240.030.45
20290.240.030.45

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22024
South BendARKANSAS11977
GillettARKANSAS12024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY11999
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12024
FreetownLOUISIANA11984
Morgan CityLOUISIANA11977
RoselandLOUISIANA12002
BrousvilleLOUISIANA12014
GonzalesLOUISIANA12014
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024
KraemerLOUISIANA12003
Port AllenLOUISIANA12003
Morgan CityLOUISIANA12013
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI12008
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.