BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Swainson's Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+166%Since 1999
7Routes In Region
20Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.02–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029
0.05Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.0995% range
±42.1%Backtest error
19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.050.010.08
20260.050.010.09
20270.050.010.09
20280.050.010.09
20290.050.020.09

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
HearneTEXAS32024
GauseTEXAS11997
Oak Grove 2TEXAS12011
CayugaTEXAS12024
BonnerTEXAS12007
Wills PointTEXAS12012
PaigeTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.