BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 986% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+986%Since 1972
25Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Thrush has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 986% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.16–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.16–1.995% range
±112.4%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.990.101.9
20261.00.111.9
20271.00.131.9
20281.00.141.9
20291.10.161.9

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Badlands and Prairies.
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA362024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA312017
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA292002
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA172021
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA142018
Maynard CouleeMONTANA72024
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA62012
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA22000
HighwoodMONTANA12011
Two DotMONTANA11987
Reed PointMONTANA12014
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11990
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA12013
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA12004
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12013
WyarnoWYOMING11978
SundanceWYOMING12023
DaytonWYOMING12005
MoskeeWYOMING11991
ShawneeWYOMING12004
Seely 2WYOMING12006
Moskee 2WYOMING12019
Moskee 3WYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.