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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.13.9
20262.51.23.9
20272.61.23.9
20282.61.24.0
20292.61.24.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NesowadnehunMAINE332021
WaiteMAINE321977
Pillsbury PdMAINE231968
Baker LakeMAINE222009
Wilson MillsMAINE212024
Clayton Lake 2MAINE192013
Weeks BrookMAINE182016
Heron LakeMAINE182003
Carrying PlMAINE162024
Priestly Br.MAINE142013
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE142017
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
YankeetuladiMAINE132009
Big TwentyMAINE122008
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Seboomook LkMAINE112014
InletNEW-YORK112017
Baker Lake 2MAINE102013
NewcombNEW-YORK102022
NorthfieldMAINE91981
St DavidMAINE92005
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE92024
SabattisNEW-YORK91983
Forest StaMAINE82000
Clayton LakeMAINE72008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.