BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+190%Since 1969
76Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Thrush has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.77–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.77–1.895% range
±23.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.711.7
20261.20.731.8
20271.30.741.8
20281.30.751.8
20291.30.771.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA282024
JordanMINNESOTA132023
HovlandMINNESOTA92024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN82010
Brush CreekMICHIGAN61983
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN62010
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA42024
DebsMINNESOTA42012
HermanMICHIGAN32022
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN32024
ShingletonMICHIGAN32024
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32016
Cass LakeMINNESOTA31995
Union TwpWISCONSIN31993
OntonagonMICHIGAN22019
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN21995
MuskallongeMICHIGAN22023
TahquamenonMICHIGAN22024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN22018
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN22024
SidnawMICHIGAN22024
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN22010
GooseneckMICHIGAN22010
CromwellMINNESOTA22004
Mille LacsMINNESOTA21998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.