BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.002.2
20260.600.002.2
20270.570.002.2
20280.540.002.2
20290.520.002.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mirando CityTEXAS41993
El SauzTEXAS42023
San YgnacioTEXAS31985
CatarinaTEXAS32010
ProgresoTEXAS32009
Pedro CreekTEXAS32005
Millett 2TEXAS32022
La PryorTEXAS22017
RaymondvilleTEXAS22024
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
LaredoTEXAS22021
RachalTEXAS12023
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
ZapataTEXAS11984
KingsvilleTEXAS12013
RandadoTEXAS12017
EncinalTEXAS12006
George WestTEXAS12023
HondoTEXAS12016
El IndioTEXAS12007
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
GuerraTEXAS12023
Encinal 2TEXAS12024
SejitaTEXAS12024
MillettTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.