BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.5–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.5–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.43.5
20272.51.43.5
20282.51.53.6
20292.51.53.6
20302.61.53.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JornadaNEW-MEXICO112025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO102025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO72025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO52025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO52025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO42021
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO42024
CornudasTEXAS42018
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32025
ComstockTEXAS32025
Black GapTEXAS31998
SlaughterTEXAS32021
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32006
Ft. DavisTEXAS32025
Van HornTEXAS32025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
LongfellowTEXAS22023
Delaware CrkTEXAS22015
GirvinTEXAS22025
OzonaTEXAS22021
Casa PiedraTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.