BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.5–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.5–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.43.5
20262.51.43.5
20272.51.43.6
20282.51.53.6
20292.51.53.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO92023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO72023
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO72024
MarfaTEXAS72024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO62024
GirvinTEXAS62017
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO42021
RodeoNEW-MEXICO42024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO42024
CornudasTEXAS42018
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32019
Black GapTEXAS31998
SlaughterTEXAS32021
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32006
MarathonTEXAS32023
Van HornTEXAS32024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
LongfellowTEXAS22023
Delaware CrkTEXAS22015
OzonaTEXAS22021
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.