BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+527%Since 1971
19Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029
0.81Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.295% range
±38.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.800.003.2
20260.800.003.2
20270.810.003.2
20280.810.003.2
20290.810.003.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Sunizona 2ARIZONA92024
San SimonARIZONA72024
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
McnealARIZONA42024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
SunizonaARIZONA21997
PomereneARIZONA12024
MaineARIZONA11997
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
CutterARIZONA11995
AlpineARIZONA12021
AmadoARIZONA12022
SahuaritaARIZONA12009
Clay SpringARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12005
DragoonARIZONA12000
RuckerARIZONA12004
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12016
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.