BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+17%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19
20290.080.000.19
20300.080.000.19

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DatelandARIZONA42016
Cactus ForestARIZONA42025
CoolidgeARIZONA21982
Parker DamCALIFORNIA21975
GlamisCALIFORNIA21974
AntaresARIZONA12025
Red RockARIZONA12011
Cabeza PrietARIZONA11996
HopeARIZONA11996
Cutter 2ARIZONA12018
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA11999
Calif CityCALIFORNIA11980
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12011
BlytheCALIFORNIA11976
AlamoNEVADA11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.