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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-28%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 70% by 2027 — from 0.29 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 70% by 2027 — from 0.29 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.090.000.21
20240.090.000.21
20250.090.000.21
20260.090.000.21
20270.090.000.21

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS22022
Valley SpgsTEXAS11999
San SabaTEXAS12016
PidcokeTEXAS11987
KempnerTEXAS11993
AdamsvilleTEXAS11977
Indian MtnTEXAS12022
Dripping SpgTEXAS11993
ManorTEXAS12013
LeanderTEXAS11997
MontellTEXAS12005
Allen CreekTEXAS12022
RockspringTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.