BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+166%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 4.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 4.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.76.4
20265.13.86.4
20275.23.86.5
20285.23.96.6
20295.34.06.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA202024
San SimonNEW-MEXICO162019
NunnCOLORADO152021
CactusTEXAS152024
EdlerCOLORADO142024
Frankel CityTEXAS142022
HaswellCOLORADO122024
NeegrandeCOLORADO122024
KarvalCOLORADO122019
PlainsTEXAS122017
HobbsNEW-MEXICO112024
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO102024
HudsonCOLORADO102024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO102024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS102022
LeotiKANSAS92022
PepNEW-MEXICO92024
GilpinCOLORADO82024
CrowleyCOLORADO82024
Last Chance 2COLORADO82024
RockportCOLORADO82024
PlymellKANSAS82024
CircleTEXAS82024
TexlineTEXAS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.