BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+147%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.03.66.4
20275.13.76.4
20285.13.76.5
20295.23.86.5
20305.23.96.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA172025
CaprockNEW-MEXICO162025
San SimonNEW-MEXICO162019
GilpinCOLORADO152025
StonehamCOLORADO142025
Frankel CityTEXAS142022
HaswellCOLORADO122024
NeegrandeCOLORADO122025
RosebudNEW-MEXICO122025
PlainsTEXAS122017
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
CactusTEXAS112025
PritchettCOLORADO102025
ClaytonvilleTEXAS102022
LeotiKANSAS92022
PepNEW-MEXICO92024
CrowleyCOLORADO82024
RockportCOLORADO82024
CircleTEXAS82024
DoughertyTEXAS82025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO72025
HudsonCOLORADO72025
TimpasCOLORADO72025
PlymellKANSAS72025
HobbsNEW-MEXICO72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.