BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+166%Since 1969
134Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 4.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029
5.3Projected 2029 index
4.0–6.695% range
±12.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.03.76.4
20265.13.86.4
20275.23.86.5
20285.23.96.6
20295.34.06.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
HookerOKLAHOMA202024
San SimonNEW-MEXICO162019
NunnCOLORADO152021
CactusTEXAS152024
EdlerCOLORADO142024
Frankel CityTEXAS142022
HaswellCOLORADO122024
NeegrandeCOLORADO122024
KarvalCOLORADO122019
PlainsTEXAS122017
HobbsNEW-MEXICO112024
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO102024
HudsonCOLORADO102024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO102024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS102022
LeotiKANSAS92022
PepNEW-MEXICO92024
GilpinCOLORADO82024
CrowleyCOLORADO82024
Last Chance 2COLORADO82024
RockportCOLORADO82024
PlymellKANSAS82024
CircleTEXAS82024
TexlineTEXAS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.