BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.411.1
20270.780.421.1
20280.780.421.1
20290.790.431.1
20300.790.431.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CircleMONTANA102021
Coleman CouleeMONTANA72024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA52025
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA52003
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA42025
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA42025
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
ClarkelenWYOMING41978
FlatwillowMONTANA32006
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32025
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32023
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA32015
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA32001
HighlightWYOMING32007
RoyMONTANA22023
BrusettMONTANA22011
JordanMONTANA22024
IngomarMONTANA22025
LocateMONTANA22006
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22011
Jordan SouthMONTANA22025
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22024
LindsayMONTANA22024
Wheat BasinMONTANA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.