BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.411.1
20260.780.421.1
20270.780.421.1
20280.790.431.1
20290.790.431.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CircleMONTANA102021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA62018
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA52003
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ClarkelenWYOMING41978
FlatwillowMONTANA32006
WebsterMONTANA32024
Wheat BasinMONTANA32024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32022
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA32015
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA32001
HighlightWYOMING32007
NewcastleWYOMING32024
RoyMONTANA22023
BrusettMONTANA22011
JordanMONTANA22024
LocateMONTANA22006
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22011
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22024
LindsayMONTANA22024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA22023
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA22004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.