BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+116%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swainson's Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.190.57
20270.390.190.58
20280.390.200.58
20290.390.200.58
20300.400.200.59

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoffatCOLORADO132025
MoscaCOLORADO72025
DatilNEW-MEXICO61995
MesitaCOLORADO42025
BeckUTAH41987
BufordWYOMING42025
WaldenCOLORADO32022
Willow PeakCOLORADO32025
FlattopsCOLORADO32019
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO32021
Skyline DrivUTAH32025
Rose WellsARIZONA21969
SeligmanARIZONA22023
ParlinCOLORADO22015
FruitaCOLORADO22007
DoylevilleCOLORADO22014
San LuisCOLORADO22025
Lake City 2COLORADO22022
CorreoNEW-MEXICO21980
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO22024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO22024
CastletonUTAH21977
WestwaterUTAH22017
HuntARIZONA11976
Dry ParkARIZONA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.