Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Surf Scoter In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-35%Since 1986
12Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±645.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.001.995% range
±645.9%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.280.001.9
20260.270.001.9
20270.260.001.9
20280.240.001.9
20290.230.001.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
JuneauALASKA512023
HainesALASKA492024
Juneau AltALASKA341986
Sitka (Short)ALASKA321992
Zimovia StrtALASKA202024
SitkaALASKA161997
PetersburgALASKA121987
Mitkof IsleALASKA111998
YakutatALASKA102024
ZaremboALASKA102012
SkagwayALASKA91994
KetchikanALASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.