BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Surf Scoter In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-35%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Surf Scoter In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±645.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±645.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±645.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.001.9
20260.270.001.9
20270.260.001.9
20280.240.001.9
20290.230.001.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Surf Scoter in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuneauALASKA512023
HainesALASKA492024
Juneau AltALASKA341986
Sitka (Short)ALASKA321992
Zimovia StrtALASKA202024
SitkaALASKA161997
PetersburgALASKA121987
Mitkof IsleALASKA111998
YakutatALASKA102024
ZaremboALASKA102012
SkagwayALASKA91994
KetchikanALASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.