BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.45
20260.180.000.45
20270.180.000.45
20280.180.000.45
20290.180.000.45

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS31985
Agua NuevaTEXAS21973
RandadoTEXAS21994
HondoTEXAS22024
El IndioTEXAS21997
ProgresoTEXAS21996
SejitaTEXAS22011
MillettTEXAS21996
RachalTEXAS12013
George WestTEXAS12011
La PryorTEXAS12017
RaymondvilleTEXAS12024
El SauzTEXAS12012
Catarina 3TEXAS12023
Pedro CreekTEXAS12005
Millett 2TEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.