BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Summer Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 332% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+332%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 332% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.22.4
20271.81.22.4
20281.91.32.5
20291.91.32.5
20301.91.32.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Summer Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND222025
TruhartVIRGINIA212024
BrandonVIRGINIA212025
HongaMARYLAND172025
WalkersVIRGINIA172023
QuinbyVIRGINIA132025
BerlinMARYLAND122025
NewarkMARYLAND112025
MadisonMARYLAND102025
GloucesterVIRGINIA102025
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE82025
Furnace TownMARYLAND82025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND72014
Forest GroveMARYLAND72023
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND72017
White StoneVIRGINIA72025
Holleyville 2DELAWARE52024
PomonkeyMARYLAND52025
NottinghamMARYLAND52025
WalnutMARYLAND52024
Port RoyalVIRGINIA52025
SharpsVIRGINIA52025
MillsboroDELAWARE42025
Milton 2DELAWARE42017
PomfretMARYLAND42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.