BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Summer Tanager in Piedmont has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Piedmont: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.5–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.5–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.43.45.5
20274.53.45.5
20284.53.45.6
20294.53.55.6
20304.63.55.7

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA272025
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA272003
WhitesburgGEORGIA262025
Liberty CityALABAMA242011
RolandGEORGIA242025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA222025
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA222019
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA202025
FinchleyVIRGINIA202021
Liberty City 2ALABAMA192025
CrestGEORGIA182025
BrodnaxVIRGINIA162025
RutledgeGEORGIA142025
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA142025
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA132024
LanettALABAMA122024
Nixburg 2ALABAMA122025
Carrs StationGEORGIA122025
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA122025
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA122001
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA111988
MaxeysGEORGIA102024
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA102025
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Cauthens XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA102021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.