BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Summer Tanager in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.000.95
20270.390.000.93
20280.370.000.92
20290.360.000.90
20300.340.000.89

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA212024
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY201978
StevensonALABAMA152024
TalladegaALABAMA122025
ShannonGEORGIA112019
ClinchportVIRGINIA91978
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY82024
YoungtownALABAMA72025
KymulgaALABAMA72025
OakmanGEORGIA72024
ChildersburgALABAMA61998
LinwoodGEORGIA62023
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY61997
Greasy RidgeOHIO61991
Signal MtnTENNESSEE62025
Pine GroveALABAMA52025
GreensportALABAMA52025
GuntersvilleALABAMA52024
JasperALABAMA51999
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY51995
Coal RunOHIO51989
South OliveOHIO52009
Red BankTENNESSEE51978
HarbuckTENNESSEE52023
Sunny EveALABAMA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.