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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.95.5
20264.22.95.5
20274.33.05.6
20284.33.05.6
20294.43.15.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI302021
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS282024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA152024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA122024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA122024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY82024
ShawLOUISIANA82024
South BendARKANSAS72023
CommerceMISSISSIPPI71993
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI72024
RamahLOUISIANA62024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA62024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI61994
SaffellARKANSAS52019
UlmARKANSAS52024
BardwellKENTUCKY52003
GonzalesLOUISIANA52019
ConcordLOUISIANA52019
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI52018
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI52024
EudoraARKANSAS42024
HughesARKANSAS42023
EnglandARKANSAS42024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.