BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+186%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.53.6
20272.61.53.6
20282.61.63.6
20292.61.63.7
20302.71.63.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA152025
LydiaTEXAS142025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA122025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA112025
SkiatookOKLAHOMA92019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS92025
DecaturTEXAS92024
CayugaTEXAS82025
PaigeTEXAS82025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS72025
Wills PointTEXAS72023
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA62025
NobleOKLAHOMA62025
Oak GroveTEXAS61999
Massey LakeTEXAS62025
CottonwoodTEXAS62025
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
CarlosTEXAS52025
YoakumTEXAS52025
ComancheTEXAS52025
GrafordTEXAS42025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
OsageTEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.