BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+172%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.43.4
20262.51.43.5
20272.51.53.5
20282.51.53.6
20292.61.63.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA172024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA132024
CayugaTEXAS112024
NobleOKLAHOMA102024
Massey LakeTEXAS102024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA92019
OsageTEXAS92024
DecaturTEXAS92024
SeldenTEXAS72024
Wills PointTEXAS72023
Oak GroveTEXAS61999
FanninTEXAS62023
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
GrafordTEXAS52019
CottonwoodTEXAS52024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52024
CarlosTEXAS52024
Thornton 3TEXAS42024
ComancheTEXAS42024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32007
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
TatumsOKLAHOMA32024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32024
Glen RoseTEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.