BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+511%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 299% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.27–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+299%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 299% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.27–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.230.88
20260.560.240.89
20270.570.250.90
20280.580.260.91
20290.590.270.92

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS142023
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA122022
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA92022
Pear ValleyTEXAS52024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA41994
SicklesOKLAHOMA32021
EldoradoTEXAS32023
WinchellTEXAS22024
WallTEXAS22018
WellingtonKANSAS12024
DaltonKANSAS12023
ColdwaterKANSAS11975
KanopolisKANSAS12023
HanoverKANSAS12017
JewellKANSAS12005
SolomonKANSAS12019
Jewell 2KANSAS12024
JamestownKANSAS12017
BeloitKANSAS12001
Beloit 2KANSAS12016
CookietownOKLAHOMA11979
VerdenOKLAHOMA11969
DouglasOKLAHOMA12014
TegardenOKLAHOMA11976
LookoutOKLAHOMA11968

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.