BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Steller's Jay in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.781.9
20271.40.791.9
20281.40.791.9
20291.40.791.9
20301.40.791.9

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes ValOREGON231987
MacdoelCALIFORNIA212019
SnowdenWASHINGTON142025
LakeviewOREGON132025
LeavenworthWASHINGTON132024
NewhalemWASHINGTON112025
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA102019
Tractor FlatIDAHO101994
Wizard FallsOREGON102025
Badger CreekOREGON102025
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA92021
GlacierWASHINGTON92024
Mt HoodOREGON82025
BartleCALIFORNIA72021
NubieberCALIFORNIA62018
HackamoreCALIFORNIA62010
Lapham Res.OREGON62025
KendallWASHINGTON62025
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON62025
ConcreteWASHINGTON62025
Cascade RivWASHINGTON62006
HawthorneNEVADA52001
PaisleyOREGON52025
BlyOREGON52001
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON51986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.