BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.416
2026128.516
2027128.516
2028128.516
2029128.616

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DirigioCALIFORNIA632014
UkiahCALIFORNIA482011
Fish RockCALIFORNIA462014
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA462017
ElktonOREGON452024
Hazel CampOREGON432022
NavarroCALIFORNIA402011
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA402014
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA361970
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA352013
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA352016
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA302014
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA302024
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA302022
Secret ValOREGON292022
HolmesCALIFORNIA282024
MccloudCALIFORNIA282021
RuchOREGON282023
Klickitat MtOREGON281996
CinderellaOREGON272024
KorbelCALIFORNIA262024
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA262010
WedderburnOREGON262024
Raymond 2WASHINGTON252024
Martins FyCALIFORNIA242009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.