BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.22.97.6
20265.32.97.6
20275.32.97.6
20285.33.07.7
20295.33.07.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA362024
SprucedaleARIZONA352023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO252023
Mormon LakeARIZONA161975
FlagstaffARIZONA142022
PortalARIZONA122024
AlpineARIZONA112023
WilliamsARIZONA102019
Forest LakesARIZONA102024
PinetopARIZONA102022
BlueARIZONA81991
Mt. GrahamARIZONA82023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO82024
MaineARIZONA62024
PrescottARIZONA32022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
PatagoniaARIZONA21968
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22019
SunizonaARIZONA11983
Carr MtnARIZONA12008
RuckerARIZONA12003
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12021
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.