BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Coastal California has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Coastal California is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Coastal California is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.42.610
20266.42.610
20276.42.610
20286.42.710
20296.42.710

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA441981
CoyoteCALIFORNIA382024
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA342004
PescaderoCALIFORNIA332024
Big BearCALIFORNIA311986
FairfaxCALIFORNIA302024
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA282023
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA272024
ValyermoCALIFORNIA252019
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA252007
CalpellaCALIFORNIA231986
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA192023
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA191986
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA192017
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA172018
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA151987
TehamaCALIFORNIA152022
ColmaCALIFORNIA141972
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA132023
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA111996
MoragaCALIFORNIA112024
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA112004
Morro BayCALIFORNIA92013
White RiverCALIFORNIA91992
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.