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Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Steller's Jay in Coastal California has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Coastal California is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Coastal California is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.32.510
20276.32.510
20286.32.510
20296.32.510
20306.32.510

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA441981
CoyoteCALIFORNIA382025
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA342004
Big BearCALIFORNIA311986
FairfaxCALIFORNIA302024
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA292025
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA282023
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA272025
ValyermoCALIFORNIA252019
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA252007
CalpellaCALIFORNIA231986
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA191986
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA192017
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA172018
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA151987
TehamaCALIFORNIA152022
PescaderoCALIFORNIA152025
ColmaCALIFORNIA141972
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA132023
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA122025
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA111996
LockwoodCALIFORNIA112025
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA112004
MoragaCALIFORNIA102025
Morro BayCALIFORNIA92013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.