BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

-48%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.030.000.10

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO52024
KiowaCOLORADO12002
Kiowa 2COLORADO12023
NinaviewCOLORADO11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.