BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 0.99–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 0.99–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.972.7
20261.80.982.7
20271.90.982.7
20281.90.992.7
20291.90.992.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cortez 2COLORADO192009
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO192024
Alton 2UTAH192021
Fox CreekCOLORADO162024
Mount EvansCOLORADO152024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO142024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
Navajo LakeUTAH122024
Bryce CanyonUTAH122024
SawmillARIZONA112014
Blackhead PkCOLORADO112021
Comanche PkCOLORADO112024
La SalUTAH112000
TsaileARIZONA102023
YampaCOLORADO102023
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO91982
ComoCOLORADO92024
GuffeyCOLORADO82024
Gold HillCOLORADO82012
Wet Mtns.COLORADO72023
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO72021
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO72024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO62009
Rollins PassCOLORADO62021
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.