BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.972.7
20271.80.982.7
20281.90.982.7
20291.90.992.7
20301.91.002.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bryce CanyonUTAH222025
Dolores RivCOLORADO192025
Cortez 2COLORADO192009
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO172025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO152025
Mount EvansCOLORADO152024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
SawmillARIZONA112014
Comanche PkCOLORADO112024
La SalUTAH112000
TsaileARIZONA102023
YampaCOLORADO102023
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO91982
Guanella PasCOLORADO92025
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO92025
GuffeyCOLORADO82025
Gold HillCOLORADO82012
GallinasNEW-MEXICO82025
Weston Pass 2COLORADO72025
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO72021
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO72024
Heber Mtn.UTAH72025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO62025
Wet Mtns.COLORADO62025
Groundhog RsCOLORADO62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.